Brazil vs Japan Prediction & Betting Tips | 29 June 2026

Match Preview

This World Cup 2026 match on Monday 29 June 2026 at 18:00 at NRG Stadium pits Brazil against Japan in a crucial World Cup last 16 showdown. Given both teams' tendency to be pragmatic, our tip is for a 1-1 draw. Brazil have shown a steady improvement, overcoming Scotland and Haiti before a draw with Morocco. Carlo Ancelotti's squad continues to shine in the final third, netting an average of 2.4 goals across their last ten outings and finishing the group stage undefeated. Neymar has made a return from injury and is expected to be among the substitutes, while Raphinha is still out with a knee issue, meaning young Rayan will retain his spot in the starting lineup. The Selecao boast a strong recent record, with six wins in their last ten, and their attacking flair is evident in their average of 3.5 total goals per game. Japan also navigated their group stage without defeat, drawing with Sweden and the Netherlands before a commanding 4-0 win against Tunisia. Hajime Moriyasu's team have been remarkably solid, securing seven wins from their last ten matches and conceding just 0.7 goals per game, with six clean sheets demonstrating their strong defence. The only key player unavailable for Japan is winger Takefusa Kubo, who is still recovering. Considering both teams have averaged at least two goals scored per game recently, we're leaning towards bets on Both Teams to Score, Half-Time Draw, and a final Draw.

Brazil Team Form and Stats

In their most recent ten outings across all competitions, Brazil have demonstrated a solid run of form, accumulating an average of 2.00 points per game. Their home record is particularly impressive, with an average of 2.13 points per match. Away from home, they've managed to secure 1.50 points per game.

Looking at the statistics from these ten fixtures, Brazil boasts an overall win percentage of 60%, which rises to 63% when playing on home turf, and stands at 50% on the road. They average 3.50 goals per game overall, scoring 2.40 on average and conceding 1.10. At home, their goal average is 3.38, with 2.38 scored and 1.00 conceded. Their away record sees them averaging 4.00 goals per game, scoring 2.50 and conceding 1.50.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) has occurred in 70% of their last ten matches overall, increasing to 75% at home, and dropping to 50% away. They've managed clean sheets in 30% of their games overall, 25% at home, and a notable 50% away. Significantly, Brazil have not failed to score in any of their last ten matches (0%). Their expected goals (xG) stand at 1.66 overall, 1.64 at home, and 1.75 away. Conversely, their expected goals against (xGA) are 1.23 overall, 1.12 at home, and 1.66 away.

Japan Team Form and Stats

Looking at Japan's record over their last ten outings across all competitions, they've shown a strong return, averaging 2.40 points per game. Their home form is particularly impressive, with an average of 2.33 points from games played at their own ground, while on the road they're securing 2.50 points on average.

In terms of statistics, Japan boast a 70% win rate overall. This rises to 67% when playing at home and an even more formidable 75% away from home. They're scoring an average of 2.70 goals per game in total, a figure that edges up to 2.83 at home and is 2.50 away. Their scoring prowess is evident with 2.00 goals scored on average across all matches. Defensively, they're tight, conceding just 0.70 goals per game overall, 0.83 at home, and a mere 0.50 on their travels. Both Teams To Score has occurred in 40% of their games, 50% at home, and 25% away. Clean sheets are a regular feature, with Japan keeping a shutout in 60% of matches overall, 50% at home, and 75% away. They haven't failed to score in any of their last ten games (0%). Their Expected Goals (xG) stand at 1.39 overall, 1.45 at home, and 1.30 away. Conversely, their Expected Goals Against (xGA) are 1.05 overall, 0.96 at home, and 1.18 on the road.

Brazil vs Japan Head to Head Statistics (H2H)

Brazil's recent form shows they've won 75% of their last 4 games, securing 3 victories with no draws. In contrast, Japan's record for the same period indicates they've won 25% of their last 4 matches. Looking at goal markets for Japan, 75% of their last 4 games saw Over 1.5 goals, with the same percentage hitting Over 2.5 and Over 3.5. Both teams scoring also featured in 75% of their last 4 outings. Brazil managed to keep clean sheets in 0% of their recent fixtures, while Japan achieved this in 25% of theirs.

Historical head-to-head encounters between Brazil and Japan include: Japan 3 Brazil 2 on 14 October 2025, Japan 0 Brazil 1 on 6 June 2022, Japan 1 Brazil 3 on 10 November 2017, and Japan 1 Brazil 4 on 22 June 2006.