Canada vs Morocco Prediction & Betting Tips | 4 July 2026

Match Preview

A cracking atmosphere is on the cards when Canada go head-to-head with Morocco in the World Cup's last 16, with both nations harbouring hopes of reaching the quarter-finals. Given Morocco's impressive performances throughout the tournament, we're backing them to secure a 1-0 victory away from home. Canada made it to the final 16 following a gritty 1-0 triumph against South Africa, courtesy of a late winner from Stephen Eustaquio. The Canucks have been handed a significant boost with left-back Alphonso Davies fit again and anticipated to start, though Ismael Kone is still out with a fractured leg. Canada have tasted defeat in only one of their last ten fixtures, winning five and conceding a mere 0.6 goals per outing. Their statistics are further bolstered by an impressive 1.85 expected goals (xG) and 0.69 expected goals against (xGA), highlighting their well-rounded approach. Morocco clinched their spot in the last 16 by overcoming the Netherlands on penalties, enjoying 70% of possession in a composed display. Chadi Riad is expected to recover from a slight knock and be available for selection in defence. Morocco have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game across their last ten matches, with their 1.63 xG underscoring their attacking prowess. Mohamed Ouahbi's side have also secured five wins in their last ten outings and continue to be a tough nut to crack. With both teams demonstrating defensive resilience throughout the competition, we're inclined to back Under 2.5 goals. Furthermore, a Half-Time Draw alongside an Away Win look appealing, especially considering Morocco's strong showings against Brazil and the Netherlands. This World Cup 2026 encounter is scheduled for Saturday 4 July 2026, kicking off at 18:00.

Canada Team Form and Stats

Here's a look at Canada's recent performance across their last 10 fixtures in all competitions. Their overall form shows 1.90 points per game, with a record of W W D D W D D W L W. At home, they've averaged 1.86 points per game, with results reading W D D W D D W. On the road, their form includes W L W, yielding 2.00 points per game.

Looking at the statistics, Canada boast a 50% win rate overall, with this figure standing at 43% at home and a strong 67% away. They're scoring an average of 2.30 goals per game overall, with 2.43 at home and 2.00 away. They've netted 1.70 goals per game on average across all matches, 1.86 at home, and 1.33 away. Defensively, they've conceded 0.60 goals per game overall, 0.57 at home, and 0.67 away. Both Teams to Score has occurred in 40% of their games overall, 43% at home, and 33% away. They've kept clean sheets in 60% of their overall matches, 57% at home, and 67% away. They've failed to score in 10% of their games overall, 14% at home, and 0% away. Their Expected Goals (xG) are 1.85 overall, 2.06 at home, and 1.45 away. Expected Goals Against (xGA) are 0.69 overall, 0.63 at home, and 0.81 away.

Morocco Team Form and Stats

Looking at Morocco's recent performances across their last 10 games in all competitions, their form has been a mixed bag. They've managed an average of 1.90 points per game overall. At home, their record is stronger, with an average of 2.33 points picked up, and they've won 67% of their home fixtures. Away from home, the points per game drop to 1.25.

Statistically, Morocco have a 50% win rate overall, boosted significantly by their home form (67% wins) compared to their away record (25% wins). On average, they're scoring 2.80 goals per game overall, with a much higher average of 3.67 at home and 1.50 on the road. Their scoring average stands at 2.00 goals per game, with 2.83 at home and 0.75 away. They are conceding 0.80 goals per game generally, 0.83 at home, and 0.75 away. Both Teams To Score has landed in 60% of their matches overall, rising to 67% at home and 50% away. Clean sheets have been recorded in 30% of their games, 33% at home and 25% on their travels. They've failed to find the net in just 10% of their matches overall, with 0% failing to score at home and 25% away. Their Expected Goals (xG) for is 1.63 overall, 1.76 at home, and 1.48 away. Conversely, their Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 0.99 overall, 0.90 at home, and 1.11 away.

Canada vs Morocco Head to Head Statistics (H2H)

Canada's recent form is stark, with 0% of their last 2 matches seeing them score, and 0% of those games featuring goals from both sides. Conversely, Morocco boast a 100% win rate in their last 2 outings.

Looking at goal markets for Morocco's recent fixtures:

Over 1.5 goals landed in 100% of their last 2 matches (2 out of 2).

Over 2.5 goals were seen in 100% of their last 2 games (2 out of 2).

Over 3.5 goals occurred in 50% of their last 2 fixtures (1 out of 2).

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) happened in 50% of their last 2 matches (1 out of 2).

In terms of defensive records, Canada kept 0% clean sheets in their last 2 games, while Morocco managed to keep a clean sheet in 50% of theirs.

Recent Head-to-Head:

1 December 2022: Canada 1 Morocco 2

11 October 2016: Morocco 4 Canada 0