England vs Croatia Prediction & Betting Tips | 17 June 2026

Match Preview

AT&T Stadium in Arlington is set to host the opening Group L clash between England and Croatia. Considering the wealth of talent available to Thomas Tuchel, we're tipping a 1-0 victory for the home side. Despite the absence of prominent figures such as Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, Morgan Gibbs-White, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Harry Maguire, The Three Lions are heading into the tournament with significant anticipation. Nevertheless, manager Thomas Tuchel boasts a deep pool of talent, including Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, and Declan Rice, and will be eager to kick off their World Cup campaign with a positive result. England have been in superb form recently, securing seven victories in their last ten outings. They've averaged 2.2 goals per game while shipping just 0.5, with their defence particularly solid, maintaining clean sheets in 70% of those matches. Croatia, on the other hand, remain a seasoned outfit in this competition. Coach Zlatko Dalić continues to lean on the experience of his midfield stalwarts, Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic, and a recent 2-1 friendly win against Slovenia will have bolstered their confidence. Croatia have also won seven of their last ten, netting 1.9 goals per match and averaging 2.9 total goals in their games. However, their defensive solidity has been less pronounced, conceding twice the number of goals as England over the same timeframe. England appear to have superior squad depth and enter this fixture with one of the tournament's most robust defensive records. Consequently, we're leaning towards a Home Win, coupled with bets on Under 3.5 and Under 2.5 goals, as four of the last four encounters between these two teams have seen three goals or less. This World Cup 2026 fixture is scheduled for Wednesday 17 June 2026, with kick-off at 21:00.

England Team Form and Stats

Looking at England's recent form across their last 10 outings in all competitions, they've secured a strong 2.20 points per game on average. Their record reads: Loss, Win, Win, Win, Win, Win, Win, Draw, Loss, Win.

At home, their record is: Loss, Win, Win, Win, Draw, Loss, Win, averaging 1.86 points per game. On the road, it's been a different story with: Win, Win, Win, yielding an impressive 3.00 points per game.

Digging into the statistics:

Overall, England boast a 70% win rate. At home, this drops slightly to 57%, but away from home, they've been perfect with a 100% win percentage.

They're scoring an average of 2.70 goals per game overall, with 2.14 at home and a remarkable 4.00 on their travels. The goals conceded stat stands at 0.50 overall, 0.71 at home, and they've kept a clean sheet in all away games (0.00 conceded).

Both Teams To Score has occurred in 20% of their overall matches, 29% at home, and 0% away. Clean sheets have been a regular feature, with 70% overall, 57% at home, and 100% away. They've failed to find the net in just 10% of games overall, 14% at home, and never away.

Expected Goals (xG) are currently sitting at 2.02 overall, 1.81 at home, and 2.50 away. Conversely, their Expected Goals Against (xGA) are 0.70 overall, 0.76 at home, and an exceptionally low 0.56 away.

Croatia Team Form and Stats

Looking at Croatia's performance over their last 10 games across all competitions, they've secured a strong 2.20 points per game on average. Their recent form reads: W W D W W W W L L W.

When playing at home, their record is even more impressive, with a 2.40 points per game average, marked by a string of victories: W W W L W. Away from home, they still maintain a solid 2.00 points per game, with their form showing: W D W W L.

Their overall win percentage stands at 70%, climbing to 80% when playing on home turf and 60% on the road. On average, they're netting 2.90 goals per game overall, with an even higher average of 3.20 at home and 2.60 away. Their attacking prowess sees them scoring 1.90 goals per game overall, with 2.40 at home and 1.40 away. Defensively, they're conceding 1.00 goal per game overall, a tight 0.80 at home and 1.20 away. Both Teams To Score has occurred in 50% of their matches overall, 40% at home and 60% away. They've managed to keep clean sheets in 40% of games regardless of venue. They've failed to score in 20% of their outings. Their Expected Goals (xG) are 2.01 overall, 2.43 at home and 1.58 away. Conversely, their Expected Goals Against (xGA) are 1.00 overall, 0.70 at home and 1.30 away.

England vs Croatia Head to Head Statistics (H2H)

England have a 50% win rate from their last 4 matches. Of those, 25% ended in a win, with 25% being draws and 25% losses. Croatia also have a 25% win rate in their last 4 games. Looking at recent encounters, over 1.5 goals have been scored in 50% of matches (2 out of 4), and over 2.5 goals have been seen in 50% of games (2 out of 4). There have been 0% instances of over 3.5 goals in the last 4 games. Both teams have scored (BTTS) in 50% of those 4 matches (2 out of 4). England kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, while Croatia managed a clean sheet in 25% of theirs. In past meetings: On 13 June 2021, England beat Croatia 1-0. England secured a 2-1 victory over Croatia on 18 November 2018. The sides drew 0-0 on 12 October 2018. Croatia defeated England 2-1 on 11 July 2018.