France vs Sweden Prediction & Betting Tips | 30 June 2026

Match Preview

MetLife Stadium is set to host a captivating last-32 clash as France take on Sweden. With France demonstrating formidable form throughout the competition, our forecast points towards a 4-2 victory for the home side. Les Bleus navigated the group stage flawlessly, securing maximum points with convincing wins against Senegal, Iraq, and Norway. Manager Didier Deschamps is anticipated to stick with Roma's Manu Kone in midfield, impressed by his recent performances, while Kylian Mbappe continues to be the primary danger man, already netting four times. Ousmane Dembele also enters the knockout rounds in fine fettle, having bagged a treble in the resounding 4-1 triumph over Norway. France boast a strong recent record, winning eight of their last ten fixtures, scoring an average of 2.8 goals and seeing 3.8 total goals in those games. Their 2.06 expected goals further emphasize their attacking prowess. Sweden, meanwhile, emerged from a challenging group, but defensive frailties persist, evidenced by the seven goals they conceded across their three group matches. Their situation is compounded by the absence of key defender Isak Hien due to injury. Sweden have secured just three victories in their last ten outings, letting in an average of 2.1 goals per game. A striking 90% of those matches have seen both teams score, and a complete lack of clean sheets during this period underscores their defensive vulnerabilities. As is often the case, attention will be on Sweden's attacking partnership of Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak. Given France's seemingly unstoppable momentum at this major tournament, a Home Win looks like a solid bet. Furthermore, backing Mbappe to score and Over 2.5 goals in the match appears attractive, considering France's potent attack and Sweden's leaky defence. This World Cup 2026 fixture is scheduled for Tuesday 30 June 2026, kicking off at 22:00.

France Team Form and Stats

Looking at France's record over their last 10 fixtures across all competitions, their form reads as follows: draws, wins, wins, wins, wins, losses, wins, wins, wins, wins. They're averaging 2.50 points per game overall. At home, their results have been win, loss, win, win, win, with an average of 2.40 points per game. On the road, they've secured draws, wins, wins, wins, wins, averaging 2.60 points per game.

In terms of statistics, France boasts an 80% win rate both overall, at home, and away. They're scoring an average of 3.80 goals per game in total, with 3.60 at home and 4.00 away. Their attacking output sees them netting 2.80 goals per game on average across all matches. Defensively, they concede 1.00 goal per game overall, 0.80 at home, and 1.20 away. Both Teams to Score has occurred in 80% of their overall matches, 60% at home, and 100% away. Clean sheets are recorded in 20% of their games overall, 40% at home, and 0% away. They haven't failed to score in any of their last 10 matches (0%). Their Expected Goals (xG) figure stands at 2.06 overall, 2.27 at home, and 1.84 away. Conversely, their Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 0.80 overall, 0.54 at home, and 1.06 away.

Sweden Team Form and Stats

Here's a look at Sweden's recent performance across their last 10 games in all competitions. Their form reads as follows: Loss, Loss, Draw, Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Win, Loss, Draw. This gives them an average of 1.20 points per game overall.

At home, their results have been: Loss, Draw, Win, Draw, Win, averaging 1.60 points per game. On the road, they've managed: Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Draw, resulting in 0.80 points per game.

Breaking down the stats further:

Overall, Sweden's win percentage stands at 30%, with 40% at home and 20% away. They're scoring an average of 1.80 goals per game overall, 2.20 at home, and 1.40 away. Their defence is conceding 2.10 goals per game overall, 1.40 at home, and 2.80 away.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) has occurred in 90% of their games overall, 80% at home, and 100% away. Clean sheets are currently at 0% across the board. They've failed to score in 10% of their matches overall, 20% at home, and 0% away.

In terms of expected goals (xG), Sweden are averaging 1.35 overall, 1.42 at home, and 1.28 away. Their expected goals against (xGA) are 1.40 overall, 1.29 at home, and 1.52 away.

France vs Sweden Head to Head Statistics (H2H)

France have been in strong form, winning 75% of their last 4 matches. They've secured 3 wins with no draws and 1 loss, meaning 75% of their games have seen over 1.5 goals and 75% have had over 2.5 goals. Just 25% have featured over 3.5 goals, but 75% have seen both teams score. Conversely, Sweden have won 25% of their recent games, with 25% of their matches featuring over 2.5 goals and 1 in 4 seeing over 3.5 goals. Both teams have scored in 75% of their last 4 matches. France haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 4, while Sweden have managed 0 clean sheets in the same period.

Looking at recent head-to-head clashes:

17 November 2020: France 4 Sweden 2

5 September 2020: Sweden 0 France 1

9 June 2017: Sweden 2 France 1

11 November 2016: France 2 Sweden 1