Germany vs Paraguay Prediction & Betting Tips | 29 June 2026

Match Preview

Germany and Paraguay are set to lock horns in a fascinating World Cup last-32 fixture at Gillette Stadium. Following a surprising 2-1 defeat to Ecuador, Germany will be keen to bounce back, and we're tipping them for a 2-1 victory on home soil. Although Germany didn't shine in their final group game, it was a dead rubber with qualification already in the bag. Julian Nagelsmann is anticipated to deploy his top players, with no new injury worries reported for this tie. Germany have been one of the standout teams in the tournament, boasting an impressive record of nine wins from their last ten outings and netting an average of 3.1 goals per game. Their attacking prowess is further highlighted by an average of 2.11 expected goals (xG) per match, and they haven't failed to score in any of their last ten fixtures, showcasing exceptional attacking reliability. Paraguay, conversely, have progressed to the knockout rounds primarily due to their robust defence, but they face a formidable task against one of the tournament's frontrunners. Midfielder Diego Gomez is unavailable due to suspension, and centre-back Omar Alderete is a significant doubt after sustaining an injury during the 0-0 stalemate with Australia. Paraguay's recent form shows four wins in their last ten games, with an average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Their away form has been hit-and-miss, with just 38% of matches won and an average of 1.13 goals scored. Germany have a clear edge in quality throughout their squad and are expected to react positively to their group stage reverse. Consequently, a Home Win is our primary recommendation for this contest, with Germany Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals also tipped. This World Cup 2026 encounter is scheduled for Monday 29 June 2026 with a 21:30 kick-off.

Germany Team Form and Stats

Germany's recent form across their last 10 fixtures in all competitions is impressive, boasting a record of nine wins and one loss. They've averaged 2.70 points per game overall. At home, their record is perfect with five wins from five, yielding an average of 3.00 points per game. Away from home, they've secured four wins and one defeat, averaging 2.40 points.

Their statistics paint a dominant picture: a 90% win rate overall, soaring to 100% at home and 80% on the road. On average, they've scored 4.00 goals per game overall, with a staggering 4.80 at home and 3.20 away. Their individual scoring average stands at 3.10 goals per match overall, reaching 4.20 at home but dropping to 2.00 away. Defensively, they've been solid, conceding just 0.90 goals per game overall, 0.60 at home and 1.20 away. Both Teams to Score has occurred in 60% of their matches, consistent across home and away fixtures. They've kept clean sheets in 40% of games, with the same percentage achieved at home and away. Significantly, Germany have failed to score in 0% of their games, both overall and at home and away. Their Expected Goals (xG) for is 2.11 overall, 2.59 at home and 1.63 away. Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 0.92 overall, 0.75 at home and 1.08 away.

Paraguay Team Form and Stats

Here's a look at Paraguay's recent performance across their last 10 fixtures in all competitions. Their overall form reads as draw, loss, loss, win, win, loss, win, loss, win, draw, averaging 1.40 points per game. At home, their record is win, draw, with an impressive 2.00 points per game. Away from home, they've secured a draw, loss, loss, win, win, loss, loss, win, the latter resulting in 1.25 points per match.

Looking at the statistics, Paraguay have a 40% win rate overall, improving to 50% when playing at home, and 38% on the road. They're averaging 2.60 goals per game in total, with 2.00 at home and 2.75 away. They've scored 1.30 goals per game overall, 2.00 at home, and 1.13 away. Conversely, they've conceded 1.30 goals per game overall, but have kept clean sheets in all of their home matches (2.00 conceded per game, which is 0.00 actual goals conceded). Away from home, they've conceded 1.63 goals per game. Both teams to score has occurred in 50% of their games overall, 0% at home, and 63% away. Clean sheets have been recorded in 40% of their matches overall, a perfect 100% at home, and 25% away. They've failed to find the net in 20% of their games overall, 50% at home, and 13% away. Their expected goals (xG) stand at 1.18 overall, 1.85 at home, and 1.01 away. Expected goals against (xGA) are 1.43 overall, 0.78 at home, and 1.59 away.

Germany vs Paraguay Head to Head Statistics (H2H)

Germany have a 100% win rate from their last 1 match. They haven't drawn any (0%) or lost any (0%) of those games. Paraguay have a 0% win rate from their last 1 match, with 0% draws and 0% losses.

In terms of goals, Germany have played 1 match with an Over 1.5 goals outcome in 0% of them, Over 2.5 in 0% and Over 3.5 in 0%. Both Teams To Score has occurred in 0% of Germany's last 1 game. Germany have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent matches, while Paraguay have managed 0% clean sheets.

Looking at previous encounters, Germany defeated Paraguay 1-0 on 15 June 2002.