Japan vs Sweden Prediction & Betting Tips | 26 June 2026

Match Preview

Japan and Sweden go head-to-head in a captivating Group F encounter where first place could be up for grabs. The Samurai Blue are brimming with confidence heading into their final group fixture, having thrashed Tunisia 4-0. This dominant performance showcased their attacking prowess and solid defensive organisation. Japan have now secured victory in seven of their last ten outings and possess one of the most robust defences in the tournament, conceding an average of just 0.8 goals per game. Manager Hajime Moriyasu will again be missing the influential winger Takefusa Kubo through injury, but there are no other fresh selection worries. Having already netted six times in their first two World Cup fixtures, Japan will be optimistic about concluding the group stage with another favourable outcome. Sweden, on the other hand, have experienced a mixed bag of results at the 2026 World Cup finals thus far. After comfortably beating Tunisia 5-1 in their opening match, the Scandinavians were brought back down to earth with a significant 5-1 reverse against the Netherlands. Their defensive vulnerabilities were evident throughout that game, and Sweden now face pressure to deliver a much-needed reaction. Anthony Elanga is making a case for a starting spot following a notable contribution against the Dutch, and the formidable attacking partnership of Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak continues to represent Sweden's primary danger. Nevertheless, the statistic that Sweden have failed to register a clean sheet in their last ten matches is a significant worry when facing a Japan side in such strong form. Japan appear more well-rounded at both ends of the field and are likely to capitalise on Sweden's defensive shortcomings. Consequently, a Home Win is our primary betting recommendation, along with Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals (Sweden's matches are seeing an average of 3.9 goals, and both sides have demonstrated considerable attacking talent). This World Cup 2026 fixture is scheduled for Friday 26 June 2026 at 00:00.

Japan Team Form and Stats

Looking at Japan's record across their last 10 outings in all competitions, they've shown a strong run of form. Their overall points per game stands at 2.30, with their recent results showing a pattern of: loss, draw, win, win, win, win, win, win, draw, win.

At home, their form is particularly impressive, with a points per game average of 2.60, featuring a sequence of: draw, win, win, win, win. Away from home, they've also been solid, averaging 2.00 points per game, with their results looking like: loss, win, win, draw, win.

In terms of statistics, Japan have a 70% win rate overall. This rises to 80% on home turf, but drops to 60% when playing away. They're scoring an average of 2.70 goals per game overall, with 3.00 coming at home and 2.40 on the road. Their attacking output sees them net 1.90 goals per game overall, 2.20 at home, and 1.60 away. Defensively, they're conceding just 0.80 goals per game, a figure consistent across all venues. Both Teams To Score has occurred in 30% of their matches overall, rising to 40% at home and falling to 20% away. Clean sheets have been a feature in 60% of their games, regardless of location. They've failed to score in 10% of matches overall, a statistic that is 0% at home but 20% away. Their Expected Goals (xG) are 1.44 overall, 1.54 at home, and 1.34 away. Expected Goals Against (xGA) are 1.13 overall, 0.86 at home, and 1.40 away.

Sweden Team Form and Stats

Looking at Sweden's recent performances across their last ten fixtures in all competitions, the results have been a mixed bag. Their overall form reads as a sequence of losses, a draw, two wins, another loss, a draw, another win, and a final loss (l l l d w w l d w l). This translates to an average of 1.10 points per game.

At home, their recent form shows losses, a draw, and two wins (l l d w d w), yielding 1.33 points per game on average. On the road, their record is less impressive, with four losses (l w l l), averaging just 0.75 points per game.

Digging into the statistics, Sweden's overall win percentage stands at 30%. This rises slightly to 33% when playing at home, but drops to 25% when they travel. They're currently averaging 3.90 goals per game across all matches, with 3.33 at home and a higher 4.75 away. Their scoring average is 1.70 goals per game overall, 1.83 at home, and 1.50 away. Defensively, they're conceding an average of 2.20 goals per game overall, 1.50 at home, and a concerning 3.25 away.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) has occurred in 80% of their games, increasing to 67% at home and a perfect 100% away. Interestingly, they haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last ten matches (0% home, 0% away). Conversely, they've failed to find the net in 20% of their games overall, 33% at home, and surprisingly, 0% away.

When it comes to Expected Goals (xG), Sweden are generating 1.28 xG overall, 1.31 at home, and 1.23 away. Their Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 1.52 overall, 1.42 at home, and 1.66 away.

Japan vs Sweden Head to Head Statistics (H2H)

There's no record of previous encounters between these two sides.