Portugal vs Croatia Prediction & Betting Tips | 3 July 2026

Match Preview

BMO Field is set to be buzzing as Portugal and Croatia lock horns in the World Cup last 32. Considering the wealth of talent within Roberto Martinez's squad, our forecast suggests a 2-1 victory for the home side. Portugal's group stage journey was a mixed bag, featuring a resounding 5-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan but also draws against DR Congo and Colombia. Their goalless stalemate with Colombia highlighted some defensive frailties, with Roberto Martinez's charges facing 24 shots and accumulating 1.70 expected goals against (xGA). Midfielder Joao Neves is anticipated to slot back into the starting lineup, and winger Rafael Leao is vying for a spot in the attacking setup. Despite these variable results, Portugal have tasted defeat only once in their previous ten fixtures, netting an average of 2.3 goals and generating 1.99 expected goals (xG) per outing, underscoring their significant attacking prowess. Croatia booked their passage to the knockout rounds following a tough 2-1 win against Ghana, and Zlatko Dalic has no new injury worries heading into this clash. Manchester City centre-back Josko Gvardiol is expected to be reinstated to the starting XI to bolster their defence. Croatia have emerged victorious in seven of their last ten contests, scoring an average of 1.9 goals, but they have also let in 1.5 goals per game, with both teams finding the net in 70% of those matches. The Portuguese boast superior individual talent and are likely to prevail in a tight affair. Consequently, we fancy a punt on Home Win, coupled with Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals, given the attacking capabilities on display from both sides for what promises to be an engaging contest. This World Cup 2026 fixture is scheduled for Friday 3 July 2026 with a kick-off time of 00:00.

Portugal Team Form and Stats

Looking at Portugal's performance over their last 10 fixtures across all tournaments, they've amassed 1.90 points per game overall. Their home form is particularly strong, averaging 2.33 points per match, while their away record sees them collecting 1.25 points on average.

In terms of win percentages, Portugal are winning 50% of their games overall, a figure that jumps to 67% at home and drops to 25% on the road. They're scoring an average of 3.10 goals per game overall, a remarkable 4.50 at home and 1.00 away. Their attacking output sees them scoring 2.30 goals per game overall, with a significant 3.50 at home and just 0.50 away. Defensively, they're conceding 0.80 goals per game on average, 1.00 at home and 0.50 on their travels. Both Teams To Score has landed in 50% of their overall matches, 83% at home, and 0% away. They've kept clean sheets in 40% of their overall games, 17% at home, and a strong 75% away. Conversely, they've failed to score in 30% of their overall matches, 0% at home, and 75% away. Their expected goals (xG) suggest they're creating 1.99 chances per game overall, 2.19 at home, and 1.70 away. Against them, expected goals conceded (xGA) stand at 1.15 overall, 0.97 at home, and 1.41 away.

Croatia Team Form and Stats

Croatia's recent performance across their last 10 fixtures in all competitions shows a strong record. Their results have been: w w w w l l w l w w, earning them an average of 2.10 points per game overall.

At home, their form reads: w w l w w, with an average of 2.40 points per game. On the road, they've managed: w w l l w, picking up 1.80 points per game.

Looking at the statistics:

* **Win Percentage:** Croatia boasts a 70% win rate overall, improving to 80% on home turf and 60% away.

* **Average Goals Per Game:** They average 3.40 goals per game in total, with 3.00 at home and 3.80 on the road.

* **Scored/Conceded:** They score an average of 1.90 goals per game overall (2.00 home, 1.80 away) and concede 1.50 per game overall (1.00 home, 2.00 away).

* **Both Teams to Score (BTTS):** This bet would have landed in 70% of their overall matches (60% at home, 80% away).

* **Clean Sheets:** Croatia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games, regardless of whether they're playing home or away.

* **Failed to Score:** They've failed to find the net in 10% of their matches overall (20% at home, 0% away).

* **Expected Goals (xG):** Their expected goals stand at 1.62 overall, 1.91 at home, and 1.33 away.

* **Expected Goals Against (xGA):** They've conceded an expected 1.17 goals per game overall (0.75 at home, 1.59 away).

Portugal vs Croatia Head to Head Statistics (H2H)

There's no prior head-to-head record for these two sides.