Portugal vs Spain Prediction & Betting Tips | 6 July 2026

Match Preview

AT&T Stadium is set to host a highly anticipated World Cup last-16 fixture as Portugal face Spain. Given Spain's increasing momentum in the tournament, we're tipping a narrow 1-0 victory for the away side. Portugal narrowly overcame Croatia 2-1 in the previous round, though Roberto Martinez's team didn't quite hit their peak form. Cristiano Ronaldo is anticipated to start up front once more, despite Goncalo Ramos netting the decisive goal from the bench. Martinez has a fully fit squad at his disposal with no new injury worries. Portugal boast a strong recent record, winning six of their last ten games, scoring an average of 2.3 goals and conceding just 0.7 per match. Their expected goals (xG) stand at 1.91 per game, but they'll need to be more clinical against a well-drilled Spanish defence. Spain, meanwhile, convincingly defeated Austria 3-0, with Lamine Yamal once again impressing, even without registering a goal. Luis de la Fuente is likely to retain the same starting lineup following another dominant performance. Spain's defensive solidity is evident in their record of just 0.4 goals conceded per game over their last ten matches, keeping seven clean sheets, alongside an impressive 2.08 xG generated per outing. Their control of the game and ability to restrict opposition chances have established them as tournament frontrunners. Considering La Roja's more convincing displays throughout the competition compared to Portugal, an Away Win is our primary tip for this round of 16 clash. Furthermore, Spain to Win to Nil and Under 2.5 Goals are also attractive propositions, especially given that five of the last seven encounters between these two nations have finished level, often with limited scoring. This World Cup 2026 match is scheduled for Monday 6 July 2026, kicking off at 20:00.

Portugal Team Form and Stats

Portugal's recent form across their last 10 outings in all competitions shows a mixed but generally strong performance. Their results read as: loss, win, draw, win, win, win, draw, win, draw, win. This translates to an average of 2.10 points per game overall.

At home, their record is particularly impressive, with a string of wins: win, win, win, draw, win, win. This yields an average of 2.67 points per game on home turf. Away from home, the stats are less stellar but still respectable: loss, draw, win, draw, indicating an average of 1.25 points per game on the road.

Looking at their win percentages, Portugal have secured victory in 60% of their matches overall, a remarkable 83% at home, but only 25% away. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game in total, with a formidable 4.33 at home and 1.00 away.

Their scoring rate stands at 2.30 goals per game overall, with 3.50 netted at home and just 0.50 away. Defensively, they concede 0.70 goals per game overall, 0.83 at home, and 0.50 away.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) has occurred in 50% of their matches overall, a significant 83% at home, but in none (0%) of their away fixtures. They are keeping clean sheets in 40% of games overall, 17% at home, and a very high 75% away. Conversely, they have failed to score in 30% of matches overall, a rare 0% at home, but in 75% of their away games.

Expected Goals (xG) for Portugal sit at 1.91 overall, 2.04 at home, and 1.70 away. Their Expected Goals Against (xGA) are 1.12 overall, 0.93 at home, and 1.41 away.

Spain Team Form and Stats

Looking at Spain's recent form across their last 10 fixtures in all competitions, they've achieved a points-per-game average of 2.20 overall. At home, this figure stands at 1.86, while their away record boasts an impressive 3.00 points per game.

Their win percentage is 60% overall, dropping to 43% when playing on home soil, but a perfect 100% away from home. On average, Spain score 2.50 goals per game generally, with 2.29 at home and 3.00 on their travels. They're netting 2.10 goals overall per match, 1.86 at home, and 2.67 away. Defensively, they're conceding only 0.40 goals per game on average, 0.43 at home, and 0.33 away. Both Teams To Score has occurred in 30% of their matches overall, 29% at home, and 33% away. Clean sheets are a common occurrence, with Spain keeping them in 70% of games overall, 71% at home, and 67% away. They've failed to score in 20% of their overall matches, 29% at home, and never (0%) when playing away. Their Expected Goals (xG) figure is 2.08 overall, 2.47 at home, and 1.17 away. Conversely, their Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 0.66 overall, 0.60 at home, and 0.80 away.

Portugal vs Spain Head to Head Statistics (H2H)

Portugal have played seven matches, winning none and drawing five (71% of their games). Spain, in contrast, have secured two wins in their last seven outings. Looking at goal trends, over 1.5 goals have been scored in 3 out of 7 Portugal matches (43%), with over 2.5 goals appearing in 2 out of 7 (29%). Over 3.5 goals have also been seen in 2 out of 7 (29%) of Portugal's games. Both Teams To Score has occurred in 3 out of 7 (43%) of Portugal's matches. Portugal have kept clean sheets in 57% of their games, while Spain have managed clean sheets in 29% of theirs.

In previous encounters between Portugal and Spain:

8 June 2025: Portugal 2 Spain 2

27 September 2022: Portugal 0 Spain 1

2 June 2022: Spain 1 Portugal 1

4 June 2021: Spain 0 Portugal 0

7 October 2020: Portugal 0 Spain 0

15 June 2018: Portugal 3 Spain 3

29 June 2010: Spain 1 Portugal 0