Senegal vs Iraq Prediction & Betting Tips | 26 June 2026

Match Preview

Senegal and Iraq meet for their final Group I clash, with the Lions of Teranga needing a win to keep their World Cup knockout stage aspirations alive. This is arguably Senegal's best opportunity to get back on track, and we're backing them to secure a 3-1 victory. Following a gut-wrenching 3-2 loss to Norway, Pape Thiaw's team finds themselves under pressure for this crucial game. Despite the previous result, there were encouraging signs, particularly from Ismaila Sarr, who impressed by netting twice and is expected to be central to their efforts again. However, a blow for Senegal, who average 2.70 goals per game, is the knee injury sustained by their first-choice goalkeeper, Edouard Mendy, meaning Mory Diaw is the probable replacement between the sticks. Iraq, on the other hand, have minimal hopes of advancing after successive losses to Norway (4-1) and France (3-0). The Lions of Mesopotamia have shown defensive frailties and have only managed one goal across their two tournament fixtures. Their challenge is further complicated by the expected absence of striker Aymen Hussein, who was injured during the France match. Given that The Lions of Teranga have much more at stake and possess greater quality, we're inclined to back a Home Win, along with Senegal scoring Over 1.5 goals and the match seeing Over 2.5 goals in total (Senegal will likely go on the offensive from the start in this must-win encounter). This World Cup 2026 fixture is scheduled for Friday 26 June 2026, kicking off at 20:00.

Senegal Team Form and Stats

Looking at Senegal's last 10 outings across all competitions, they've been in strong form. Their overall results show a healthy seven wins, one draw, and two defeats, averaging 1.90 points per game. At home, it's been even more dominant, with five wins from five games giving them a perfect 3.00 points per game average. Away from home, however, their record is a little mixed, with one win, one draw, and three losses, yielding 0.80 points per game.

Their win percentage stands at 60% overall, soaring to 100% on home turf, but dropping to 20% on the road. Senegal are averaging 2.70 goals per game in total, hitting 2.40 at home and a high of 3.00 away. They've been scoring 1.60 goals on average across all matches, with 2.00 at home and 1.20 away. Defensively, they've conceded 1.10 goals per game overall, a stingy 0.40 at home, and 1.80 away. Both teams to score has occurred in 50% of their matches overall, 40% at home, and 60% away. Clean sheets have been kept in half of their games overall, 60% at home, and 40% away. They've failed to score in just 10% of their fixtures, with a perfect record of not failing to score at home (0%) and failing to score in 20% of away games. Their expected goals (xG) are 1.55 overall, 1.77 at home, and 1.33 away. Conversely, they are expected to concede 1.25 goals per game overall, 1.18 at home, and 1.33 away.

Iraq Team Form and Stats

Looking at Iraq's performance across their last 10 fixtures in all competitions, their form has been a mixed bag. They've managed to secure a points-per-game average of 1.30 overall. At home, they've shown a stronger record, winning two and losing two of their last four games there, with an average of 1.50 points per home match. Away from home, it's been less consistent, with their record reading won 1, lost 2, drawn 1 in their last six away fixtures, averaging 1.17 points per away game.

Digging into the statistics, Iraq have a 40% win rate overall, improving to 50% on home turf but dropping to 33% when playing away. They're scoring 2.40 goals per game on average across all matches, with a remarkable 3.25 at home and 1.83 away. Their scoring record stands at 0.90 goals per game overall, 1.25 at home, and 0.67 away. Defensively, they're conceding 1.50 goals per game in total, 2.00 at home, and 1.17 away. Both Teams To Score has occurred in 40% of their matches overall, spiking to 75% at home and falling to 17% away. Clean sheets are a rarity, with only 20% of their games seeing them keep the opposition out, with no clean sheets at home but 33% away. They've also failed to score in 40% of their games, a figure that rises to 50% away and is 25% at home. Their Expected Goals (xG) for stands at 0.87 overall, 1.01 at home, and 0.76 away. Conversely, their Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 1.47 overall, 1.50 at home, and 1.44 away.

Senegal vs Iraq Head to Head Statistics (H2H)

There's no prior head-to-head record to analyse for these two clubs.