Turkey vs USA Prediction & Betting Tips | 26 June 2026

Match Preview

Turkey and the USA face off in the final Group D clash with minimal pressure, though the circumstances differ greatly. Vincenzo Montella's men bossed large parts of their losses to Australia and Paraguay, unleashing a staggering 62 shots over those two games, yet they found the net zero times. Consequently, their ticket to the 2026 World Cup knockout rounds remains unpunched. Montella's Turkey have frequently showcased a pleasing attacking style, scoring an average of 2.2 goals in their last ten outings, and they'll be keen to finish their tournament run on a high. Expect several alterations to the lineup, with Yilmaz, Can Uzun, Arda Gul, and Orkun Kokcu all vying for a starting spot.

The USA, on the other hand, have enjoyed a flawless group stage. Wins against Paraguay and Australia confirmed their progression with a game left, affording coach Mauricio Pochettino the freedom to rotate his squad. Lineup changes are anticipated, with Berhalter, Joe Scally, Auston Trusty, Haji Wright, and Gio Reyna all looking to make the starting XI. Despite their strong results, the World Cup hosts have shown defensive vulnerabilities, managing only one clean sheet in their last ten matches and seeing both teams score in 80% of those fixtures. Given Turkey's dispirited form after their exit, we're leaning towards an Away Win, coupled with Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals (Turkey are creating plenty of opportunities, while the USA are finding the back of the net with ease). This World Cup 2026 fixture is scheduled for Friday 26 June 2026, kicking off at 03:00.

Turkey Team Form and Stats

Turkey's recent performance across their last 10 fixtures in all competitions shows a strong record. They've secured a points-per-game average of 2.20 overall, with a home record that's particularly impressive, averaging 2.40 points per game and a 2.00 average away.

Looking at the statistics, Turkey boasts a 70% win rate overall, escalating to 80% on home turf and 60% on their travels. They're averaging 3.00 goals per game in total, with 2.60 at home and a high-scoring 3.40 away. Their scoring average stands at 2.20 goals per game for both overall and home matches, while conceding just 0.80 goals overall, a mere 0.40 at home, and 1.20 away.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) has occurred in 40% of their overall games, dropping to 20% at home but rising to 60% away. Clean sheets have been a feature in 40% of their matches, with a solid 60% at home and 20% away. They've failed to find the net in 20% of their games across all categories. Their Expected Goals (xG) figure is 2.02 overall, 2.12 at home, and 1.91 away, while their Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 1.07 overall, 0.81 at home, and 1.32 away.

USA Team Form and Stats

USA's recent performance across their last 10 fixtures in all competitions shows a mixed bag. Their overall form reads as a draw, win, win, win, loss, loss, win, loss, win, win. They've averaged 1.90 points per game in this period.

At home, their record mirrors the overall pattern: draw, win, win, win, loss, loss, win, loss, win, win, also yielding 1.90 points per game. Away from home, the statistics are stark, with zero points per game recorded.

Looking at the win percentages, USA have secured victory in 60% of their overall matches and 60% of their home games, but 0% away. Their matches have been high-scoring affairs, with an average of 3.80 goals per game overall and at home, and none away. Of these goals, they've netted 2.20 per game on average, both overall and at home, with none away. They've conceded an average of 1.60 goals overall and at home, and zero away. Both Teams To Score has occurred in 80% of their overall and home games, and 0% away. Clean sheets have been a rarity, achieved in just 10% of overall and home matches, and never away. Conversely, they've failed to score in 10% of their overall and home fixtures, and 100% away. Their Expected Goals figure stands at 1.40 overall and 1.50 at home, with 0.00 away. Expected Goals Against is 1.04 overall and 1.14 at home, and 0.00 away.

Turkey vs USA Head to Head Statistics (H2H)

Turkey boasts a perfect 100% record from their last 1 match, winning it without a single draw (0%) or defeat (0%). Across their 1 match, they've achieved 1 win. The USA, conversely, has a 0% win rate from their last 1 match. Looking at goal statistics, 100% of matches have seen over 1.5 goals scored in 1 out of 1 encounters. Similarly, 100% of matches have gone over 2.5 goals, again in 1 out of 1 games. However, 0% of matches have featured over 3.5 goals, with this occurring in 0 out of 1 games. Both teams to score has been a feature in 100% of matches, occurring in 1 out of 1 contests. Clean sheets are also a rarity; Turkey has kept 0% clean sheets, and the USA has also managed 0% clean sheets.

In their most recent encounter on 7 June 2025, USA lost 1-2 to Turkey.